After the Lantern Festival, part of the building materials market varieties after symbolically slightly pull up, because do not match demand another callback. Come unexpectedly "unusually cold spell in early spring" let people wait "up" experienced a strange feeling, and abnormal changes in the weather also affect the steel market demand normal release, what the market when we can pick up? Recovery efforts can be? The author do brief analysis.
First of all, on the current market conditions, the social high inventory, short-term market supply pressure. Since the end of 2011, social inventory for six consecutive weeks increased substantially, the total social inventory of 18489000 tons, close to the 2011 peak. Sub species, the construction of steel increase obviously, especially line steel increase than in the past two years. According to statistical data "my steel net" shows, as of February 10th, the major cities of the country for rebar inventory 8106400 tons, single week the rebar inventory increased 679600 tons, an increase of 9.15%; the main city of the wire for the total inventory 2404000 tons weekly increase 251500 tons, annulus comparing growth of 12%. According to the previous historical law, steel stocks are often the beginning of the year continued to increase, peaked in early March, and then gradually began to inventory process. This year because of the Spring Festival in advance, coupled with the recent extremely cold weather affects the steel demand recovery process, the expected future 1 ~ 2 weeks, steel stocks may continue to increase, this will make the market supply pressure is increased in the short term. Shortly after the rising steel prices will continue to inventory pressure with the increase.
Furthermore, the steel price increases at first and then decreased, lack of power, not a price support. After the Spring Festival although the market transaction is not active, but steel prices are steadily rising. In early February, Shagang rebar and wire rod remain unchanged, the construction of steel 15% off order. Wine steel, Liu Gang, large steel, Shaoguan Iron and steel, Lianyuan Steel etc. GISE, much home raised steel rebar and wire rod factory price, rate of 10 ~ 50 yuan / ton. Steel mills in the experience earnings for the fourth quarter of 2011 after the poor, improve the profitability of the will of the strong, especially a quarter of each year is an important stage of steel completed years target. But in February 11th the Shagang issued mid price, steel prices down 100 yuan / ton, high prices down 150 yuan / ton, plate prices down 200 yuan / ton. A modest decline in the ex factory price of steel, steel mills are not that optimistic about the market outlook, market. In addition to market to buy or not to buy up the mentality, the market price of short-term upward pressure.
Although the market supply pressure is bigger, the demand is weak, but the central policy is sent in advance a spring. Although the central government proposed to "promote the prices reasonable return" main tone unchanged slogan, but the part of policy or trimming. The central bank in the early 2's financial work conference put forward in "meet the first home loan demand," the restoration of these is helpful to a certain extent the real estate market turnover. In addition, published in February 1st, "central No. 1 document", for 9 consecutive years of "three agriculture", the focus of agricultural science and technology in a more prominent position, is conducive to the steel city, the confidence of the market have a certain support. With the arrival of March, construction of water conservancy investment or will usher in the peak season, water conservancy construction of dams, canals and other pool, building needs a lot of screw steel, wire rod, steel and other construction steel, a large steel pipe of the water conservancy project needs and associated valves, this will lead to lower demand for steel, or. Furthermore, the State Council also study the deployment of the four measures to support the healthy development of small and micro enterprises (improvement in the fiscal and taxation support policy, to alleviate the financing difficulties, accelerate the technological transformation, strengthen service and management), which also helps to enhance the demand for steel products.
To sum up, in view of the present northern regions subjected to extreme cold weather hit, the restoration construction delayed most of construction engineering, southern area is also generally cool rain, many construction projects have not yet returned to normal on construction, screw steel, wire and other construction steel demand was obviously decreased. Until March, with the weather warming, large-scale infrastructure projects in the southern and northern areas are started, the demand for construction steel market peatlands, the inventory to accelerate, to drive the construction steel prices to stabilize rising.
